UPDATE2 Balloting day has arrived for both Kerdau and Merlimau voters after a surprisingly entertaining 8-day campaign period that was also marred by some of the lowest and most vulgar politicking ever seen.
But the talk and hype are over now, and it is time for the people at both Merlimau and Kerdau to put their money where their mouths are.
Voting begins at 8am and will close at 5pm. The Election Commission expects a voter turnout of at least 80 per cent at both constituencies.
“We have a better chance at Kerdau. At the very least, we hope to reduce the BN majority at both places. Judging from the good response we received in the final days of campaigning, I believe Pakatan will be able to wrest Merlimau in the general election, but not now,” PKR vice president Tian Chua told Malaysia Chronicle.
As at 9am, Election Commission chairman Abdul Aziz Mohd Yusof said voter turnout at Merlimau was 15.55 percent with 1,399 having cast their votes.
KerdauIn Kerdau, PAS' Hassanuddin Salim will be contesting against Umno's Syed Ibrahim Syed Ahmad. The seat fell vacant after the Umno incumbent Zaharuddin Kassim died from a heart attack. There are 8,999 registered voters - 88.7 per cent of whom are Malays, five per cent Chinese, 3.3 per cent Indians, 2.6 per cent Orang Asli, 2.4 per cent other races and 0.01 per cent Sarawak bumiputera.
In 2008, Umno won the seat with a majority of 1,615 votes and on first glance, outsiders may have though PAS stood a fighting chance.But the state seat also has three three Felda land schemes namely Felda Jengka 25, Jengka 23 and Jengka 22 with Prime Minister Najib Razak himself leading a crowd of Umno glitterati to sleepy hollow.
The Felda vote is crucial and Umno Umno information chief Ahmad Maslan himself has admitted that BN has taken pains to ensure that the Felda folk there received everything they asked for. He expects BN to raise a larger majority at this by-election, with an estimated 57 per cent of support coming from the settlers.
"They still form our bastion. Issues such as the CESS payment of RM13,000 had been resolved. We will pay out on Monday here and for Felda schemes in other places, we will determine the time," Bernamareported Ahmad as saying.
Additionally, Bernama reported sources as saying out of the total number of voters, 63.97 per cent would vote for the BN, 14.6 per cent were fence-sitters, 16.28 per cent would vote for PAS while the stand of 0.8 per cent was unclear.
Likewise, political analyst Ong Kian Ming believes that BN will likely score a better result than in 2008.
"What will decide the majority is the effectiveness of the Umno machinery among the Malay voters in this seat, especially among Felda voters. My estimate is that BN's majority would go up to approximately 2,500 votes, close to its 2004 majority," said Ong.
The Kerdau state constituency has 13 polling centres and 22 voting streams. The vote tallying centre will be at the Dewan Tun Razak, Temerloh Municipal Council.
Merlimau
In Merlimau, PAS' Yuhaizad Abdullah will go head to head with Umno's Roslan Ahmad. Again, the state seat fell vacant after the Umno incumbent Mohd Hidhir died from illness. In 2008, Umno won the seat with a majority of 2,154 votes.
There are 10,679 registered voters in Merlimau of whom 64.9 per cent are Malay, 20.8 percent Chinese, 14.8 percent Indian voters and 0.2 other races.
There are seven polling centres and 21 voting streams. The final tallying of votes will be conducted at the Platinum Hall of Merlimau Polytechnic.
Although a mixed seat typical of the racial composition in Malaysia, the final outcome may not be so easy to analyse especially by racial breakdown. This is due mainly to the fact that there are no polling centres where the concentration of Chinese voters is especially large.
"In addition, none of the polling stations with a significant minority of Chinese voters have a record of voting for the opposition, unlike the Chinese polling stations in the Labis town centre in the Tenang state seat," said Kian Ming, who predicts BN will will with a 4,000-vote majority.
"This means that the opposition, specifically the DAP, has fewer opportunities to focus their efforts in a small number of heavily Chinese polling stations in an attempt to boost Pakatan's share of Chinese votes."
He is expecting an increase of about 6 per cent support for the BN among the Malay voters, "an upward movement in the Chinese vote of as much as 5 per cent" partly because of the efforts of the MCA which started even before the Chinese New Year holidays and partly due to the relative weakness of the DAP in this area.
He also anticipates a large 45 per cent swing in the Indian support for the BN partly because of "the lack of a coherent strategy by the Pakatan to maintain its hold on the Indian vote", partly because of the relative success Najib has had in reaching out to the Indian community at the national level and partly due to the recent departure of the unpopular Samy Vellu as the president of the MIC.
He also anticipates a large 45 per cent swing in the Indian support for the BN partly because of "the lack of a coherent strategy by the Pakatan to maintain its hold on the Indian vote", partly because of the relative success Najib has had in reaching out to the Indian community at the national level and partly due to the recent departure of the unpopular Samy Vellu as the president of the MIC.
Focus on Sarawak
But whatever the basis for the analyses, losing at both Kerdau and Merlima has been anticipated by the Pakatan.
While their leaders have swarmed both constituencies and worked round the clock to build rapport with the electorate, they know full well the inroads they made this time around will not be enough to wrest these traditional BN strongholds from Umno.
Even their approach in the dinner-and-ceramah campaigns was geared towards raising funds for the Pakatan election kitty. Most of the time, the constituents had to pay their own way - around RM30 per head compared to the lavish dinners hosted completely free by the BN. Yet most of the Pakatan functions were packed and the feel-good factor obvious at the end of each session.
"It is true we do have one eye on the Sarawak polls. There is only so much resources we can spend especially when there is such a huge one just around the corner. But even so, no one in Merlimau or Kerdau can say Pakatan stinged on effort. We went all out and tried our best. But some things can only be done after a few rounds," said Tian.
Results of both by-elections are expected before 8pm.
